BC Poll results

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Let's not overestimate the significance of one poll

I was going to write a little comment regarding the need to look at polls as part of a larger trend, and not individually. And then I stumbled across a comment from Mark K. posted to Dave Bagler’s Blog which says the same thing in a much more educated and accessible way than I ever could have.

So, take this poll with a very large grain of salt, and study the trends.

That being said, as we are likely approaching an election, mainstream media which report on these polls and highlight growth in the GPC's numbers should not be underestimated.  Scientific or not, what the media says can really resonate with Canadians.  So I'm always happy to hear from the pollsters that Green numbers are up.

"Sudbury" Steve May

Much appreciated compliment

Thanks Steve!

And you are right, growth should never be underestimated, all polls should be tracked and when they indicate even small positive trends of momentum they make for great messaging and fundraising tools. Actually, my bet is we will shortly see this very poll in our e-mail accounts as a fundraising ask.

There is also the benefit that Canadians see these results in the newspapers or on TV and the like and say to themselves, perhaps without needing to see trends, "hey, the Green Party is serious. It's growing." With the right approach that can turn into real votes.

Good numbers, even if just a cross-section, can never be a bad thing.

 

60/256

6% MOE in BC

Over 60 of 256 polled in BC is still pretty good.

True True

We really have to know why our numbers don't add up on Election Day, every party experiences variances but we tend to have the wildest swing of all.

I have no proof, however if we have done the polling please let me know, I think that by and large the electorate likes us, as the strong second choice showing indicates but for some reason they don't translate that into a vote for us, and I think this is what happens on election day.  Prior to the election the voter can tell the pollsters whatever they feel but when they are in the booth they choose who they think is the best from their point of view.  What we really need to know empirically is what is holding them back, and my gut tells me we scare them a bit, we come across as a little too raw, a little too radical, a little too extreme, and a little too Green, and not well rounded enough, that's why I keep harping on the same thing, talk our other issues up at least 9 out of 10 times, or like I said in another post, don't talk the environment at all for the first few of weeks of the election and cause a stir.

Turnout

Voter ID and GOTV.  50% of people vote.  

Liberals at 37% at 47% turnout

Conservatives at 37% at 57% turnout

Greens at 12% at 40% turnout..

(made up numbers..)

On election day, in a close riding, you see a partisan scrutineer at each poll, holding a list of supporters and checking them off as they come in.  Every few hours, they report back to a central office, with their polls, who will call every supporter who hasn't voted yet.

There is a myth that our support goes away on election day.  Our support is still there, but our voters are not.

GOTV Is Vital

No question - we are far behind the CPC and Liberals and NDP on getting out the vote.  I talked with a local Liberal after the election and they told me that they had a team that wasn't that much bigger than ours and they were toasted - down to 21% iirc - while the CPC shot over 50% and we were just barely below 10% (grrr).  NDP did virtually nothing and got about 8%. 

We did tons of door knocking in a couple of areas and did well, I focused on getting signs up in areas where the other parties didn't and we did drastically better in those areas than in the past when we didn't put an effort into those areas.  Now we have to do that EVERYWHERE. 

Our voters will not turn up if they think we don't care.  Our voters will not vote for us if they feel we are non-factors locally.  We must make them see us, and they must know we want it.  That is the only way we can start winning seats and getting over the 10% hump overall on election day.

John Northey
Wellington-Halton Hills