EKOS Poll Seat Projection Gives One to the Greens

The Globe & Mail is reporting that in a  new poll conducted by EKOS (week of January 21/10), the Green Party is projected to win one seat if a Federal Election were held today.  While there is no mention of where that seat might be, the EKOS results indicate that we are at 15.3% in British Columbia, the highest anywhere in Canada.  This is largely consistent with weekly polling conducted by EKOS since the new year.  Overall, EKOS reports that we have dropped slightly in popular support, down to a still respectable 11.5% nationally (from a high of 13.4% during the week of January 7/10).  We are still trending slightly above where we were during the second part of last year.

What's unclear to me (and please, someone set me straight on this) is whether one of the major polls has ever predicted that we would win a seat in parliament should an election be held.  I can't seem to find this reference in the EKOS poll itself, which appears only to provide data related to provincial intentions (as the smallest geographic unit -- in other words, data is not at a riding-by-riding level).  However, the Globe must have received this data from somewhere (does anyone know), as they are reporting the EKOS has indicated the following breakdown:

Liberals - 117 seats

Conservatives - 114 seats

NDP - 28 seats

Bloc - 47 seats

Green - 1 seat

Independents - 1

This is good news, even though we always fare better in the EKOS polls than the other national polls.  We continue to trend better than we have fared for the last part of 2009 (although heading downwards slightly from two weeks ago, which might become problematic).  I'm satisfied that it appears that EKOS is predicting a Green seat in parliament (even if I can't find the actual data! I have to think that Jane Taber at the G&M is getting this from somewhere reliable, though, so I feel comfortable with what's being reported).  This is certainly a little something for us to continue to build on over the next little while.

What's also intersting is that this proragation issue appears to be sticking to the Conservatives, although I continue to be baffled that the electorate seems content to (largely) turn to the Liberals on this issue.  The NDP has been trending downward since late November, which surprises me, considering that they have been much more vocal about this than the Liberals have been.  I guess I'm just ticked that it appears to me that the Liberals haven't done a darn thing to earn this increase in support.  But that's just my little partisan opinion.

Enjoy.

P.S. I appear to have been scooped by David Barclay, who commented on one of my earlier blogs today regarding the latest figures from EKOS.  Here are David's thoughtful comments.