Don't expect a fall federal election, say Ottawa insiders

An election can happen either of two ways:

1) Harper calls it.

2) The opposition votes non-confidence.

Harper will only call an election if he's confident he can win it, hopefully with a larger minority (if not majority). That confidence will only come if polling indicates that, but the polling also has to be consistent. Most polls have shown he'd win another minority - hence an election would be a waste of time. Only rarely (if ever) and for very short periods has it shown he might get a majority. In fact, even at the best polling peaks he'd need a few points extra growth during the writ period. He can't rely on that.

The only reason he would ever call an election expecting a minority would be as a renewed mandate to pass something that is stalled. But now that he controls the Senate that reason is not too likely. Plus, he runs the risk of the opposition teaming up to form a ruling majority coalition right after the election.

So the other way is if the Lib, NDP, and Bloc all vote against Harper. It's not a great time for the NDP or Bloc, as their numbers indicate possible seat losses, so they may talk tough but it's likely a bluff. Iggy is in a worse position, as he hasn't even had a poll which would put him ahead of Harper. He won't trigger an election expecting only to be beholden to the NDP and maybe Bloc to get more seats than Harper. The only way you could see the Liberals going for election in this climate would be as a way to fall on their swords and purge themselves of Iggy and some other old-line folks, so as to be better positioned for future recovery. Very risky, so very unlikely.

Until the polling numbers indicate a consistent levels of support or a clear trend, and until that trend favours either Harper or Iggy enough to be worth the gamble, we won't see an election.