Why Preparing for an Immediate Election is Essential

The Green Party has to be prepared for a snap election called by the Conservatives. Averaging the most recent polls from five polling firms in the last week of March 2007 shows the Conservatives with an almost 10% lead over the Liberals: Conservatives 38%, Liberals 28.4%, NDP 14.4%, Green Party 9% and Bloc 8.6%. To the left is the findings of one of these polls, Angus Reid Strategies showing the Conservatives 17% ahead of the Liberals.

Angus Reid, March 30, 2007

While this does not put the Conservatives in majority territory, it puts them close, with a far enhanced minority government. And defeating Dion so early in his career as the new Liberal leader is a strategic move the Conservatives would relish and will find hard to resist.

Averaging the polls of five polling companies – Angus Reid, Leger, Ipsos-Reid, Decima Research and Strategic Counsel (see table far below) – gives a combined poll of almost 6,400 respondents and a margin of error of less than one per cent. It also varies the sample size, polling methodology, and sampling methodology -- to provide a more reliable picture than any single poll on its own. It is a good idea not to rely on any one single poll, but instead look at rolling averages, or blending the polls of differenct research firms as in this case.

As a result the Green Party is going to have to be prepared for an election immediately. This is why Dion and Layton have been traveling around the country saying we shouldn't have an election now -- because it's not an advantageous time for either of their parties.

Harper doesn't have to engineer his own defeat, as Prime Minister he can call an election at any time.

Given this every EDA has to accelerate its' election preparedness -- immediately holding nomination meetings, building membership, and fundraising. Please forward the URL of this blog [www.greenparty.ca/en/node/1172] to others in your EDA -- encouraging them to read this and get active in election preparations.

For the Green Party there is good news on a number of fronts:

1) Greens have tied Liberals in Alberta
The Green Party has tied the Liberals for the first time ever in a region of Canada. In Alberta the Green Party is at 12% tied with the Liberals and ahead of the NDP at 10% -- in Angus Reid Strategies of March 30. This is the most recent of all the polls cited and the one with the largest sample size (2,056) – meaning that it is the most accurate of the five polls cited here with an error rate of only +/- 2.2%. [see www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/fuseaction/viewItem/itemID/15227].

2) In the same poll in the regional breakdown for Saskatchewan and Manitoba the Green Party is within one per cent of the Liberal Party – the Liberals are at 17% and the Greens at 16%.

3) Greens are ahead of the Bloc
The average of the five polls put the Greens ahead of the Bloc. This is significant – for two reasons:

i) The Bloc is included in the televised leaders debates. Both English and French debates. How could the broadcasters not include a party that has more support than the Bloc?

ii) We are ahead of the Bloc from not one, not two -- but five polls averaged together. This is significant!

4) The Green Party is rated almost 2:1 by voters over other parties on being the best party to deal with the most important issue -- the environment. See blog entitled Greens far Ahead of all other Parties on Environment According to Canadians at www.greenparty.ca/en/node/1163.

Why the Conservatives are not in majority territory
Support for the Conservatives is distorted by Alberta where the party has 58-65% support depending on which poll's regional breakdown you look at. Given that Alberta has 10% of the population of Canada -- the overwhelming support for the Conservatives distorts the national picture. Therefore it is more accurate to pull the Albertan figures out of the mix and recalculate the national averages without Alberta skewing the picture. The Conservatives are going to win all 28 seats in Alberta regardless of whether they are at 40, 50 or 65% in Alberta. Taking the average of the five polls below, and netting out Alberta gives a very different picture -- Alberta artificially inflates the Conservatives support across Canada by about 5%.

So the Conservatives will not be able to win a majority.

Realignment within Quebec
The recent provincial election in Quebec indicates there is a profound re-alignment going on. Federally the Liberal Party has always used a polarizing strategy: fight separatism -- and the only party to do that so the line went was the Liberal Party. The Bloc was a willing participant in this polarizing politics because it was their raison d'etre. This strategy worked successfully for decades.

But the results of the recent provincial elections shows that Quebecers are tired of it. The rise of Mario Dumont's ADQ shows that this issue is no longer trumping others. This spells trouble for the Liberals and trouble for the Bloc. Each needed the other. It also spells trouble for Dion who was the federalist crusader in Quebec.

Dumont's rise augers well for the Conservatives. And one of these polls shows them significantly ahead of the Liberals in Quebec. For the two polls that have regional break downs for Quebec -- Ipsos-Reid and Angus Reid Strategies -- averaging their results for the five parties shows the following: the bloc at 33.5%, the Conservatives at 29.5%, the Liberals at 17%, the NDP at 11% and the Green Party at 7%. Given Dumont's rise, given the Conservatives being more than 10% ahead of the Liberals in Quebec I think we can expect an election soon.

So prepare!

Average of the all published polls in the last week of March 2007 from major research firms.

Firm . . . . . . Date . . .Con. Lib . NDP . Grn . Blc . Sample
Angus Reid . Mar-30 . . 39 . . 22 . . 17 . 11 . . 10 . .2,056
Ipsos-Reid . . Mar-29 . . 36 . . 31 . . 15 . .9 . . 8 . . . .843
Leger . . . . . .Mar-28 . . 41 . . 27 . . 14 . . 6 . .9 . . .1,500
Decima . . . . Mar-27 . . 35 . . 31 . . 13 . .10 . .8 . . .1,000
Strategic . . . Mar-23 . . 39 . . 31 . . 13 . . 9 . .8 . . . 1,000
Counsel
Average %. . . . . . . . . . 38% 28.4% 14.4% 9% 8.6% . 6,399

Additional Reasons the Conservatives will call the Election
1) The Conservatives held a campaign training school in Toronto for March 15-18 for some 1,500 party workers.(see www.conservative.ca/EN/4548/).

2) Garth Turner, who was in the Conservative caucus until mid-October, wrote on his blog that the Conservatives are on a "war footing."

3) The Conservatives have $15 million in the bank (roughly what they spend centrally during an election -- in 2004 I remember the Conservatives spent $17 million. Source of $15 million figure: www.thestar.com/article/172336. By contrast the Liberal Party just came out of a leadership campaign in the last six months where all the donations were going the leadership candidates not the central party. Many of the leadership candidates still have debt, which they will have to fundraise from party members.

4) This past week, the Conservatives showed off the party's "war room" -- a campaign headquarters that's 17,000 square feet that the party has leased and ready for the election. You don't go to all this expense unless you're planning to call the election.

Maximizing membership & fundraising centrally & locally is key to gains
Building membership is absolutely essential to gains in this election. The good news is that party membership has grown from 700+ members in 2002 to more than 10,000 members today and continues to grow. For an easy strategy to grow membership see www.greenparty.ca/en/node/1154

The more money we spend centrally the more votes we will win. This is because with increased budget during the election the central party could for instance get a piece of literature to every household during the election. In the 2006 election the GPC's "small" EDAs (few members, or small election team) that got a piece of literature to every household in their riding saw their vote increase by 92% on average over 2004 results. Larger GPC EDAs (campaigns over $10,000 or 100 volunteers) that got a piece of literature to every household saw their vote increase by an average of 54%.

If the central party gets a piece of literature to every household in Canada we'll will win more than 1,000,000 votes. It also will mean that 72 ridings will break the 10% threshold required to get campaign rebate of 60% of what the EDA spent. This will pour close to $1 million dollars into local EDA coffers.

GPC is the most efficient political party in Canada:
In 2004 we won a vote for every 86 cents we spent centrally. By contrast the NDP had to spend $5.66 to win each vote; the Conservatives $4.30, the Liberals $3.34 and the Bloc $2.86.

In the 2006 Election 2006 the GPC was again by far the most efficient political party in Canada winning a vote for every $1.37 we spent, by contrast the NDP had to spend $5.22 to win a vote, the Liberals $3.89 and the Conservatives $3.35.

To get these numbers take total central party spending and divide by # of votes won. It gives you a relative measure of efficiency.

In London North Centre (LNC) we spent roughly the maximum -- $88,000 -- and won 26% of the vote. LNC was the highest funded campaign ever in GPC history and the campaign with the highest ever number of volunteer hours -- and we almost won. Given the momentum we would have won the election if we had had another week. The NDP -- a party that has been around for decades saw its vote collapse.

The point being is that if we have the same level of funding as the old line parties our vote would be significantly higher. So the central party and the EDAs need to be fundraising as vigorously as possible to be prepared for an election.