Plan B: What is Our Plan if Things Go Pear-shaped Rapidly?
We live in interesting times. "Things" seem to be accelerating. Climate change has started and is moving much more quickly than the scientists predicted. We may have hit Peak Oil; certainly prices are climbing rapidly. Food prices are also shooting up, with shortages and riots resulting. It appears to me that we may not have time for a leisurely transition to a post-carbon world; the pace of that change may be dictated to us by forces beyond our control, otherwise called reality. We better have a plan for a rapid re-engineering of our industry and our society ready-to-go.
Anyone following the news in recent months is aware that the factors I just mentioned are combining to cause severe problems. The UN has announced that the past ten years of progress in developing countries could be undone overnight by rising food prices, and that many millions could starve. Climate change is accelerating; even with a bit of a break expected for a few years thanks to La Nina, the Earth is still warming rapidly and this is causing problems affecting millions.
Our entire society is based on cheap oil, and oil is suddenly much more expensive than it used to be. It is also quite likely that the price is going to keep going up, partly because demand now equals or exceeds supply, and partly because some oil producing nations have realised that their resource will only be worth more, much more, in the future, so are reluctant to sell it all as quickly as possible. In addition, some oil-producers have realised that their society will be in trouble when their oil runs out (meaning the current leaders will likely be in trouble of the French Revolution kind), and have begun diverting more oil revenue and oil now to build internal prosperity based on lower oil revenues in the future.
The Peak Oil folks have predicted that civilisation may break down very rapidly once we pass the peak of oil production. (Peak Oil means that half of all oil has been extracted - the easier and therefore least costly half.) As oil becomes progressively more costly to extract, the price, clearly, goes up. Given that our entire society is based upon cheap oil, oil price increases or shortages batter the economic foundations of our society. Combine this with the fact that we simply have to go post-carbon very rapidly due to the climate crisis - top scientists like James Hanses are saying we have until 2015 to start bringing emissions down, and that we must reduce the CO2 already in the atmosphere, or else we'll pass the mother of all tipping points.
All this doom-and-gloom is to motivate us to answer the question: What is our Plan B, our plan to rapidly reimagine and retool our society? What if we don't have time to slowly transition to a green society?
I have campaigned elsewhere that we need to plan for a World War II level-of-effort to revamp our society, and I think we need to start planning how we would go about doing that - and we need to start planning now. If we have time to slowly and gently transition to a post-fossil fuel world, swell. But it is looking increasingly like we will not have the luxury of that time.
We need a plan to:
- Make Canada independent for necessities: food, water, shelter, clothing, energy, transportation, and communication
- Create a "Sustainability Audit" for every city and town: Are necessities available locally; how much could be, how quickly, and what would it take to make that happen; how will rural people get around - and get food to cities - if gas is $20/gallon or in short supply
- Move to organic farming and local food independence; what subsidies could be redirected; what state is the land in (can it support organic, and if not, how soon); what are the best organic farming strategies for each area; are there enough people who still know how to farm without petroleum-based chemical inputs
- Rebuild our national train system and replace domestic air travel; use high-speed electric trains for passengers, mail, and parcels
- Become energy independence at the local level; how can we change building codes to create net-zero buildings; what types of energy can be generated in each area: co-generation, biomass, wind, solar, tidal, geothermal
- Build energy generation capability and industrial capability with minimal or no fossil fuel inputs
- Move to a restorative economy, where most raw materials come from our own waste: composting, reuse, and recycling replace much of our current energy-intensive mineral extraction
This is potentially a very positive future in many ways, with a rebirth in community, a new respect for our planet, healthier foods and people, and more.
The Green Party needs to have such a plan. People with practical solutions that can be implemented rapidly and on a broad scale will be in short supply. Vision is needed, which we have, but so is management ability: a strategic and tactical plan to implement that vision.
We need to create that vision and that plan, else the vacuum will be filled by others - and if I had faith in those others, I wouldn't be in the Green Party.
- Brian Gordon's blog
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Comments
Let's stick with Plan A
You are calling on the Green Party, in case of an increasingly probable emergency, to not only have a vision for a World War II level-of-effort to revamp our society but also to put in place the people to manage and implement that vision. That’s biting off more than we can chew.
Rather than thinking about Plan B, let’s first see if we can do some more down to earth things like building strong EDA’s throughout the country, raising more funds and increasing our support.
If you think we’re ready to launch a World War II level-of-effort Plan B, getting a few dozen seats in parliament should be a piece of cake by comparison.
Ard Van Leeuwen (Dufferin-Caledon, ON)
Ard Van Leeuwen (Dufferin-Caledon, ON)
The views I express on this blog are purely my own and should not be construed to represent the official position of the Green Party of Canada.
war-free zone
"we need to plan for a World War II level-of-effort to revamp our society"
Brian, you're not letting go of this, we see. When hopefully persuasive language is pretty much all one has, what one's words conjure are an essential matter. I have spoken against GPC rhetoric invoking moon launch, Americana, Churchill & Chamberlain, WW-whatever, &c. There is no place any longer for this stuff in real green minds. Some ideals, methods & institutions, with important reformation, from the grossly destructive modern age should be used, lest we face, I agree, ruin
(an example at http://www.greenparty.ca/en/node/4574#comment-4800). But one has to just drop most of the mainstream historical Anglo world heroes & heroic activities as models. Greens cannot come to prescribe centralized command & control, as your rhetoric suggests. Central power should back up & be educative for local adaptations. Canada is a true world leader in cross-jurisdictional administrativia, although the EU seems to be catching up. Our success in large part is a result of isolation from armed conflict. Our green failures have been for going along with so much Anglo warlike leadership. "Thinkers" behind the Cons. like to proudly point to things like Vimy Ridge being utterly formative or our country. It is a travesty that it was so (see http://www.greenparty.ca/en/node/2581#comment-1795, esp. end). It would be a further travesty if we were to be so taken by the manipulative political hogwash south of our border that is driving to put Obama & his "color revolution" subverter associates in just such a place of command & control, and above all positioning for more & even increased, believe it, belligerence abroad. If you & others persist in making appeal to "war efforts", you are playing further into the century-long continuum of violent depredation that manipulators will likely easily slide an acquiescent public into after their assimilation to more grandiloquent hogwash.
Stop the war-talk. I repeat what I said at http://www.greenparty.ca/en/node/3265, "If English-speaking people can still only be largely motivated to great causes by warlike rhetoric, I truly think there is no hope for them in the end."
I agree that devising a
I agree that devising a comprehensive Plan B is biting off more than we can chew. However, I think Brian has made some excellent points regarding what actions to take should the worst come to pass. Just like our carbon tax idea, we cannot implement it alone but we may be able to garner support from one or two mainstream parties that have a better chance of enacting such measures.
As far as the war terminology, I think we're nit picking a bit. When people look for examples of concerted actions by an alliance of nations, the obvious ones come from war. Despite the folly of such endeavors, we still have the most powerful and influential nation on earth mounting "wars' like the War on Terror, War on Drugs, War on Poverty, etc.
The great achievements throughout history tend to be tied up with military campaigns - the Great Wall of China, Hadrian's Wall, colonization of the New World, Cold War-inspired Space Race, etc. etc.
It's not easy to find an example of concerted, multi-national effort that doesn't involve some war terminology. FDR's New Deal springs to mind but was it really the socialistic New Deal that lifted the US out of the Great Depression, or was it entry into WW II?
I like the idea of the GPC's "Hope Chest" vs. the typical party's "War Chest." I'd like to see us try to use metaphors and examples that steer clear of war analogies. I don't think Brian was too militaristic in his article, though. Are there non-warlike metaphors that could have been employed to reference a massive global effort? Maybe. Let's try to think of a few and we won't be tempted to use war and military examples.
Jim Elve
Communications Chair
Haldimand-Norfolk
The views expressed here are mine alone and are not the official position of the Green Party of Canada.
Jim Elve
The opinions expressed here are purely my own and do not represent official Green Party of Canada policy or positions.
plan R
Nitpicking. My whole point is that such underestimation of the effect of language risks having a good cause subverted or piggybacked on for ugly purpose, disallowing access to changing the root of the matter. English-speaking peoples are particularly prone to this (see http://www.greenparty.ca/en/node/4576#comment-5041). But you make exactly my point, in spades, by mentioning the war on this, the war on that. All three wars you cite are fake, and gotten away with in large part because of the corruption of discourse.
You can't apply the words, "great achievements", except to those kinds of military-related things? But you do want to "steer clear of war analogies". So we agree somewhat, even as Brian and I would likely like to see many of the same things happen. That leaves difference of language which betrays different conceptuality. The things we'd both like to see then might only have too surface a similarity to get at the green root of a problem. I cannot imagine an "aggressive" "retooling" as greenly appropriate. More like an educative de-tooling or scale-down. Here's a comment of mine from last month on another gpc forum (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gpc-members/message/...), "Resilient Communities", using a Heinberg piece as starting point:
from http://globalpublicmedia.com/museletter_192_resili... ,
"Resilient Communities: A Guide to Disaster Management":
.....................
At some point during the lively conversation, Faith Morgan, the Director of the film The Power of Community: How Cuba Survived Peak Oil, reminded us how, early in Cuba's crisis period, organic farming advocates had provided crucial advice that helped quickly transform the nation's food system; without the input of these previously marginalized alternatives advocates, the nation probably would not have survived. I was certainly familiar with the story: I have recounted it in print and in lectures on many occasions. Nevertheless, as Faith spoke, a (compact-fluorescent) light bulb flickered somewhere in my murky skull. Perhaps something similar could happen in other nations or communities�and not just with regard to food, but all the other aspects of modern existence. There are plenty of marginalized "alternatives" advocates who for decades have been researching and promoting low-energy ways of doing things that will make perfect sense in a post-petroleum environment. What if these folks could be mobilized and coordinated, their knowledge made readily available to local officials and the public at large, in preparation for the imminent period when existing systems start to fail in ever more obvious ways?
The notion solidified as I read Naomi Klein's recent book, The Shock Doctrine, which details how savvy politicians and business leaders have used natural disasters, wars, and economic upheavals as propitious moments for the introduction of neo-liberal economic policies�privatization, free trade, slashed social spending�that are themselves disastrous (though immensely profitable for the few), and that would normally be rejected. In the current instance, as we contemplate a global mega-disaster-in-the-making, it is not difficult to envision neo-liberal or neo-conservative power-holders licking their collective chops over the prospect of doing away with all labor and environmental regulations as citizens everywhere clamor for strong leaders who can implement bold policies to restore relative normalcy.
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This is quite in line with what I've been writing about Cons.-types grasping the un-"sustainability" of things, but with policy generally in exactly the wrong direction. The most notable Canadian precedent was with Mike Harris' PCs in Ontario. It does not mean that they don't get some things "accidentally" right from a green point of view, as can happen when an intransigent order gets busted up. So, for instance, I think some Cons. are right to look to the absence of some traditionalism as needing rectification, they're more admissive of "religion in the public square". But what's made of that is often woeful. (I've heard a few times Preston Manning's radio series, This I Believe, of American model, and it's not been offensive, but I just can't shake a background feeling of creepiness at hearing his voice behind it all.) Regarding their demeaning of centralist authorities that stand in the way of corporatist freedoms, in some ways of course they are right, entrenched bureaucracies or unions with modernist bases need to be wedged open. But their "postmodern" version is the hapless disjointed one, comparable to "postmodern" aesthetic kitsch. Earthier tones evocative of more elemental beauty, even if at times a terrifying reality is thereby met, even if apparently chaotic at times, that's the kind of green aesthetic that is exactly the opposite of Cons.', which engenders truly pointless man-made terror. Their corporateering "overgrown modern offspring of a premodern age" (as I put it at http://www.greenparty.ca/en/node/4264#comment-4183 ) in playing postmodern actually exacerbates the overarching sins of the Western world that extend well back into antiquity.
Hope you don't mind my using Heinberg to jump off & take abstract flight, as he as usual is competently addressing more clearly closer-to-the-ground concerns. I'm as usual trying to fill a philosophical niche that I really think needs filling to deepen any Green political effect. No candidate should even want to spout this kind of material directly for Canadian audience (we're not in France, for instance). But that there is deep & abiding philosophic buttress available I hope serves to inspire, embolden, if in necessarily quieter Canadian ways.
On the ground, I've several times mentioned among Greens, with no takers, that Greens should be very well positioned to involve themselves, with background political motivation, in developing such nucleus "reslience" communities as Heinberg describes. The "background political motivation" would be of greater import in Canada than Heinberg's U.S., given the more laudable American do-it-yourself approach than our tendency to look to government authority. But our reliance on govt. authority is at its best re law & order & fairness, which suggests possible centralized backing for localized solutions, in educative & investment ways, e.g. re currency as I've suggested repeatedly. In the '30s breakdown in the U.S., alternative currencies sprung up with local successes, but were suppressed by central authority (Heinberg mentions FDR re the several-year delay in creatively addressing that breakdown; but that was in an overly centralized way that "right-wingers" are "right for the wrong reasons" to oppose).
Heinberg also writes about curtailment of "growth", and we know & agree with most of what he means; but I stand by my warning to steer away from using that term politically or philosophically with any derision. Erich has expressed himself well in this regard (I think Heinberg does elsewhere, too, but maybe not using 'growth'), about different kinds of "growth".
Recently mentioned in the forum was Homer-Dixon's "slack", related to Heinberg's "resilience" & "redundancy", which he particularly takes up towards the end of his "museletter".
This "for decades" "previously marginalized alternatives advocate" & "organic farming advocate" believes that such local "resilience" groupings that Heinberg muses about would be very useful for Green political purpose. Libs. now flounder for lack of more specific support bases based in certain extra-political activities or groupings (consider their relative numbers recently discussed in this forum), like politicized nationalists for BQ, some religionists & corporateers for Cons., unions &c for NDP. The recent strongly worded discussion on the GPC blogsite regarding organizational abilities can be seen to be a function of the same difficulty Libs. have. And the more one plays purer politics as it has unfortunately come to be played in Canada, playing with polls & $ & just so much rah-rah-rah-ing, the more does GPC sometimes seem to approach the general emptiness of those floundering Libs. With even smallish groupings closer knit for extra-political purposes largely behind a party, political organization becomes that much easier & more effective. "Resilience" community networks are an example, especially as they of necessity comprehensively branch out to many other local organizations, of how Greens could form that "extra-political" base of support.
I would like to finally add that, as organic-local food advocacy was at the heart both of the Cuban model & the idea itself for Heinberg, I believe it to be at the absolute root of green advocacy, thus my "for decades" involvement therewith.
Daryl Vernon
York Centre
P.S. Just thought I'd share what I just had to interrupt composition of this post for: the computer screen is by a 2nd floor window, at which various bird species seem to take near-daily turns notifying me of the emptiness of their feeder, which we offer as compensation for making use of their otherwise partly destroyed urban habitat. "Partly", because on our small rented midtown property, we've permitted to flourish dozens of trees of over a dozen species, which has served to attract to our oasis of sorts over a dozen regular avian species. Today's informant was but a sparrow, who knew to land on the sill to berate my preoccupation with "airy" (!) matters when their rather "on-the-ground" (sort of) concerns are left unmet. There must be thousands of surrounding home properties in our district completely unlike the semi-wildness of our own before a wild ravine area is reached, in our very, very un-resilient community, likely to continue indefinitely, for all our per capita riches and walls of self-protection, sucking sustenance in too large part from distant enough violent & exploitive measures, all the while depriving birds, native & not, of their own due right where we live.
Plan B: Biting off too much?
There has been some misinterpretation of my intent. I do mean that we need to start thinking about how to make changes more quickly, but not that the GPC needs to do it all.
For example, I do think that every city and town should do a sustainability and security audit, where they evaluate available resources for producing necessities. How long would it be before Toronto ran out of food, for example, if there was a major disruption to the supply line? (Several countries have restricted exports of rice to ensure that their own people have enough to eat. If these restrictions become widespread, and if Toronto depends upon imports of rice, then Torontonians could rapidly run out of rice.) However, it is not for the GPC to do these audits. Ideally, the federal government sets the standards and provides assistance to the cities and towns to do their own audits.
In other areas, we have many items in our Green Vision that could be accelerated if necessary. For example, we talk about phasing in a carbon tax over 20 years, but the conversion of industry might have to be done more rapidly that that encourages.
The reason for the "World War II level of effort" metaphor was because, for example, FDR completely retooled the US auto factories in six months. We may need to do something similarly aggressive. We cannot count on having a certain amount of time to move to a green economy.
Brian Gordon
Nominated Candidate, Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca
Green Party of Canada
Trained Presenter
An Inconvenient Truth
People - Planet - Prosperity
The New Green Economy
Yes, so build your EDAs!
Your "Plan B" ideas are necessary. But in order to accomplish any of this we need to build infrastructure. And that is why we need to build strong EDAs across the country. The Green Party EDAs are the strongest grassroots environmental network in the country. If it becomes obvious to all and sundry that our parliamentry system has become hopelessly incapable of dealing with the environmental crisis it will be necessary to create "centres of citizen mobilization" across the country. That would be the role of the Green EDAs. Where they are strong, they already consist of a local "Who's Who" of environmentalists with the requist skills and knowledge to provide serious local leadership.
In order to do this, however, we have to do a much better job of organizing those local EDAs. Unfortunately, far too many Green members simply cannot see why we need strong EDAs and continue to support policies that keep us from organizing them across the country. :-(
"There is always an easy solution to every human problem--neat, plausible, and wrong." H.L. Mencken
Plan B 3.0 Mobilizing to Save Civilization
Lester Brown at the Earth Policy Institute feels the same urgency that you do and he has written: Plan B 3.0 Mobilizing to Save Civilization. It is a free download at http://www.earth-policy.org/Books/PB3/Contents.htm
He advocates an urgent massive international mobilization to reverse the climate crisis, overpopulation, deforestation, depleted soil and water resources, overfishing, etc. Bill Clinton and Ted Turner bought 3600 copies of the book and distributed them to world leaders.Many experts now believe that our problems constitute an emergency. Lester was interviewed on CBC Radio’s The Current May 15 http://www.cbc.ca/thecurrent/2008/200805/20080515.... On CNN the weekend before he was asked; What can we do? His first answer: We cannot keep adding 78 million people to the planet each year. Next question: Is this a global problem or does the US have to reduce its’ population too? Answer: Every country has to do its’ part and reduce its’ population.
The problem is: We need strong EDAs *AND* Plan B
Thanks for this, Rob; I'll check it out.
To the rest: Spending time building a strong EDA is a great idea. Of course, if things go south rather more quickly than expected, then the efforts spent on the EDA will not be as helpful as would those spent figuring out how to accelerate moving to a green economy - and that was the point of my post, that things may move very quickly indeed. We may not have multiple election cycles before the situation worsens considerably.
Brian Gordon
Nominated Candidate, Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca
Green Party of Canada
Trained Presenter
An Inconvenient Truth
People - Planet - Prosperity
The New Green Economy