May has Much More Momentum than all other Federal Leaders

Elizabeth May has more momentum than all the other federal leaders, according to an Angus Reid Strategies study released Sept 20. Elizabeth is outperforming all the other leaders in the election so far.

Elizabeth May’s approval rating improved to 28% (up 3%). May also boasts the best momentum score (+7) (Respondents who say their opinion of May outnumbers those who say it has worsened by 7%).

Stephen Harper's approval rating fell 4% to at 32%, while his momentum score is -21 (11% of respondents say their opinion of Harper has improved, while 32% say it has worsened).

Liberal Party leader Stéphane Dion approval rating is 15% (-2%) and his negative momentum is about the same as Harper's at -22.

NDP Jack Layton has a 36% per cent approval rating and a momentum score of +2.

In Quebec, Bloc Québécois leader Gilles Duceppe has a 35% per cent approval rating, and a -16 momentum score.

The average momentum score for Harper, Dion’s and Duceppe’s is minus 20 (-21 + -22 + - 16 = -59 divided by 3 is -19.7). So Elizabeth’s momentums score is 27% higher on average than Harper, Dion and Duceppe – and three and a half times better than Jack Layton’s.

Quoting from the study: "Only one-in-four Canadians (24%) believe Harper cares about the environment, even fewer (18%) regard Layton as a person who can manage the economy effectively, and just one-in-ten (10%) perceive Dion as a strong and decisive leader."

Angus Reid conducted the poll by interviewing 1,502 Canadians on September 17 and 18. The margin of error is 2.5%, 19 times out of 20. To download the full report go to
http://angusreidstrategies.com/uploads/pages/pdfs/...

Strategic Counsel revealed similar results to the Angus Reid findings in a Sept 10-13 poll:

Elizabeth Exceeds Expectations of Voters:
Ahead of Layton & Dion Key Battlegrounds

2008 Federal Election: Battleground Tracking Sept 10-13, Strategic Counsel, page 12

In key BC battlegrounds Elizabeth exceeded the expectations of more Canadian voters than both Jack Layton and Stephane Dion – only Stephen Harper had done better than expected in the eyes of more voters. Voter in key battleground or “swing” ridings were asked which leader has exceeded their expectations so far.

In Ontario Elizabeth had done better than Dion and was in a statistical tie with Layton.

Averaging the results of these Ontario and BC Battlegrounds (BC n = 390; Ontario n = 420) creates the following results:

Stephen Harper . . . . . 23.5%
Elizabeth May. . . . . . .16.4%
Jack Layton . . . . . . . . 15.7%
Stephane Dion . . . . . .10.0%

(You can’t just average the BC and Ontario figures because the sample sizes are different – as there are more swing ridings in Ontario than BC).

The Green Party continues to convince Canadians that it is offering significant solutions to our economic and ecological crises we face.

The poll by Strategic Counsel was commissioned by the Globe and Mail and CTV. The interviews of more than 1,200 Canadian voters were conducted Sept 10-13. The poll also asked:


Which Leader Has Been the Nastiest? Outside of Quebec here are the results -- for within Quebec see the final pie chart.
Stephen Harper . . . . . .30%
Stephane Dion . . . . . . 17.5%
Jack Layton . . . . . . . . .11.0%
Elizabeth May. . . . . . . . .2.5%

see page 14

This re-inforces what other polls have shown that all the old-line traditional parties have the highest negative ratings for their leaders. And there are reasons for this -- the old line parties engage in old-style negative politicking. The Greens focus on solutions -- and we must continue to do so.

A more recent poll (Sept 13-15) shows the Conservatives lead in the Ontario battlegrounds has shrunk to its lowest level since the campaign began. (URL at end of blog)

Key Battleground Ridings Surveyed in BC
Vancouver Quadra, Vancouver Island North, West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country, Fleetwood-Port Kells, Newton-North Delta, Burnaby-Douglas, Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca, Richmond, Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission, North Vancouver.

One of these key battlegrounds is Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country, where our incumbent MP, Blair Wilson is running for re-election. The insights from this poll bode well for him!

Key Battleground Ridings Surveyed in Ontario
Parry Sound-Muskoka, Glengarry-Prescott-Russell, St. Catharines, Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, Brant, Thunder Bay-Superior North, Oakville, Thunder Bay-Rainy River, Huron-Bruce, London-Fanshaw, Ottawa-Orléans, Simcoe North, London West, Barrie, Kitchener-Conestoga, Halton, Peterborough, Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing, Burlington, Mississauga South.

To download the full Strategic Counsel poll go to http://www.thestrategiccounsel.com/our_news/polls/2008-09-14%20Election%20Tracking%20(reporting%20Sept%2010-13)_final.pdf

For the Globe and Mail article on falling Conservative support to lowest level since election began see http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM...