Guelph by-election a Green-Liberal race: this explains early election call

GUELPH – Poll results released today show that the Guelph by-election has become a two-way race between Green candidate Mike Nagy and Liberal Frank Valeriote.

The poll, conducted September 1 and 2 by Oraclepoll Research for the Green Party, shows Green support is now almost twice as high as support for Conservatives and three times the level of the NDP. The standings are: Frank Valeriote, Liberal - 38.4%; Mike Nagy, Green - 24.2%; Gloria Kovach, Conservative -12.6%; Tom King, NDP - 8.0%. A further 16.7% of voters were undecided.

One in every two Guelph electors (47% of all voters) has already decided to vote Green or is considering it, according to the poll. Among those voters who are considering changing their mind before the by-election – the Green Party is the first choice for Guelph electors to switch to.

“We have the momentum to win this election. People are responding to our message of hope,” said Guelph Green Party campaign chair Stan Kozak.

Mr. Kozak said the poll reflects the feedback local canvassers have been hearing on the doorsteps – that the Conservatives are failing badly and stand no chance of being elected in Guelph. The poll results also support speculation that the Guelph by-election campaign has struck fear into the heart of the ruling Conservative Party in Ottawa and is leading Prime Minister Stephen Harper to break both his promise and his own law on having a fixed election date. A general election call before September 8th would cancel the by-election in Guelph.

The poll also shows that 82% of Guelph voters support including Green Party leader Elizabeth May in the televised leaders' debate.

Overwhelmingly, Guelph voters say the environment is the most important issue: 50% rating it as the #1 or #2 issue vs. 37% for the economy and 28% for health care.

The #1 Issue: overwhelmingly, the environment
Issue Most Important 2nd most important 1st + 2nd
total
Environment 29.3% 20.3% 49.6%
Economy 20.7% 16.8% 36.8%
Health care 13.3% 14.7% 28.0%

This explains why the Liberals in recent days are taking out full page ads explaining their environmental policy and trying to portray themselves as being green, said Mr. Kovak.

“The Liberals must be doing their own polling and are seeing the rapid rise of the Greens. Just look at their ads,” said Mr. Kozak.

The Oraclepoll survey was conducted on September 1 and 2 with 300 electors who say they are certain to vote. The polls margin of error is +/-5.7%, 19 times out of 20.

The Green Party achieved a long-time goal of gaining its first Member of Parliament last Saturday when Independent MP Blair Wilson announced his move to the party.