Greens trigger long-term change to Canadian political dynamic
Stephen Harper has signalled that he won't be calling an election because of the likelihood of another minority government:
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"We're entering a period of minority government. We've had a couple in a row now," he said Wednesday.
Harper said with four political parties securing a minimum of 20 seats each, it would be difficult for any side to win a majority government.
"I think the possibility of a minority government in a subsequent election is pretty high," he said. "At the same time, I don't think Canadians want an election and the government is not seeking an election."
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Harper is right that we are in a period of minority governments, but he is wrong about the root cause. The situation of having four parties in a situation to win 20 seats has been the case ever since the Bloc was formed in 1991. However, the new dynamic in play is that the Greens have built up our core level of support to 10% and this level of support is not going away. Once voters switch to the Greens they don't go back to the older parties.
This 10% level of support has made it all but impossible for the Conservatives or Liberals to get into what has traditionally been considered comfortable majority territory of 40% or more in the polls. Consider that in the past those two parties typically shared about 75% of the vote, with a floor of around 30%. So one party could be at 40% in the polls and the other could be at 35%, or one could be at 43% and the other could be at 32%. The proper timing of an election call in the latter situation could easily win a majority, and this situation often presented itself.
But now the Greens have pulled about 5% of their support from those two parties, so they only share about 70% or less support between them. That means that for one party to get to (say) 43% in the polls the other party would have to be at 27%. And that lower level is unlikely to occur.
The Conservatives and Liberals have both flirted with 40% support in recent years but they can't maintain it since it means the other party is hovering at a historical low of around 30%. So it is difficult for their leadership to come up with a scenario where they can win a majority using traditional benchmarks.
As it happens, the new benchmark for a majority is probably around 36% since the 10% of Green Party votes are not really in play. The breadth of our support means that there is no guarantee that the Greens will win even a single seat. So 308 seats are in play between 90% of the voters voting for the other four major parties (e.g. 90% x 40% = 36%). But it will be far harder for the Liberals or Conservatives to predict if they can win a majority at 36% or 37% (even if it might occur in practice), which is why Harper is hesitating to pull the trigger on an election.
One of the complaints against using proportional representation in our federal elections is that it will trigger the end of majority governments. But Green supporters have already triggered this situation, perhaps permanently, even without winning a seat. This is just one more example of how the current electoral system is broken and has to change.
- Kevin Colton's blog
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Comments
Change is the name of the game
Probably the only real way we can get change to our voting system is to continue to expand the vote count until parliament becomes totally dysfunctional. I have absolutely no faith in the honesty or goodwill of any of the other parties.
"There is always an easy solution to every human problem--neat, plausible, and wrong." H.L. Mencken
Election Imminent
I'm sorry, Kevin, but I have to disagree. I think Harper is aiming for an election right now. The Liberals have painted themselves into a corner with their 'principled' stand on the environment and now Harper is going to call their bluff by making a watered down environmental proposal part of the throne speech. The Liberals are at a historic low point. They have probably the weakest leader they have had in a hundred years and they can't back out on this so-called position of principle without looking foolish and even weaker in subsequent elections. Harper, despite all his short-comings as a Prime Minister, is no fool. He sees an opening and he is running for it. I see the writ dropping on October 19. I see Greens benefitting enormously when it becomes apparent to Liberal supporters that there will be no such thing as a Prime Minister Dion. I see them coming over to us in droves when they see that, by supporting us, they will have a chance to make history rather than choosing to support a lack lustre opposition party.
Joel Parkes
Peterborough Green Party Candidate
Agreed: Election Imminent
I agree Joel: a Federal election is imminent. We must assume so anyway. If I were advising the Liberals I would be suggesting that they precipitate an election now and win a few seats, rather than wait 6 months and becoming a total train wreck. This will give the Liberals a chance to replace Dion sooner rather than later, and rebuild.
One or two Green seats in the upcoming Ontario election will be a huge spring board for the GPC campaign. I hope GPO Greens are working on a massive ground campaign in the last week. Go for it!
Points taken
Hi Joel,
It could very well be that Harper will call an election this month, and it could also play out the way you outline. Harper will certainly trigger an election any time he thinks he can win a majority. I guess the main thing I was trying to do was use Harper's posturing to point out that the Greens have triggered a long-term change in the national political scene, and that it has become much harder for the Conservatives or Liberals to predict when they are in majority territory. This analysis is reinforced by the new CP poll that indicates that Canadians think our support will hold.
Regards,
Kevin
remember numbers work both ways...
38% think the our support will hold, means 62% think our support will fall.
The good news is that last summer (before we doubled in the polls) 35% of canadians would consider voting for us.. if those 35% are part of the 38% that think our support will hold, were in good shape!
Wew should be in membership building mode, regardless.
Lambton Kent Middlesex EDA (SW Ontario)
We can anticipate an election and start doing some advertising, or step our letter writing (to the editors) We can get busy building a support network, even planning some aspects of a campaign without spending a lot of money. Effort at building membership numbers has to be top of our list. Next on the list if fund raising, not for a campaign but for a 'war chest' ready to go even before a writ is dropped.
If election is delayed beyond Jan 1, we can have contributed to the Eda and federal party in an extra year. Make use of that.
Remember that 2008 is a convention year, and that puts our finances in a bind, because the convention costs eat up donation room. So get the money in during 2007.