Watchdogs

I am grateful that we still have independent reporting on government activities. Yesterday we received the reports to Parliament from the Auditor General Sheila Fraser and the Environment Commissioner Scott Vaughn from the AG’s office as well as from the Parliamentary Budget Officer Kevin Page.

First to the Parliamentary Budget Officer. (You can find the full report at www.parl.gc.ca/pbo-dpb) Thanks to Kevin Page we are beginning to see something of “truth in advertising.” As my analysis had pointed out on reading the budget, the stimulus package is far less than advertised and the risk of deep and lasting deficits far more severe. Page’s work supports that conclusion. The economic stimulus advertised by Flaherty at $39.9 billion is actually over-stated by 20%. Page calls it a “maximum or ‘gross’ estimate.” When corrected to take into account the maintenance of current EI rates, the net stimulus is much smaller -- $31.8 billion. Moreover, Page has calculated the impact of the fact so much of the package requires matching funding from other levels of government. He estimates that up to 25% of the stimulus is dependent on not yet committed matching funds. As well, he notes that $5.4 billion in "stimulus" is actually re-describing previous spending commitments. Instead of creating the 189,000 jobs I referenced in the Citizens Guide I wrote for the web site, the more accurate figure is 120,000 jobs, according to Page.

I am also grateful for the precise figure of the hypothetical sale of federal assets and “yet-to-be-determined fiscal savings,” which has been treated as money in the bank to get us to surpluses. The PBO puts that figure at $8 billion.

Overall, the PBO finds that the budget estimates are likely over-optimistic in the forecast for a “rapid recovery” of tax revenue, without raising taxes. The truth of the 2009 budget doesn’t meet its advertising.

Neither do the Harper government’s environment commitments. The report of the Environment Commissioner, a first for new Commissioner Scott Vaughn, provides a litany of examples of programmes that appear designed to fail. (Full report at http://www.oag-bvg.gc.ca/internet/English/parl_cesd_200812_e_31872.html ). From the $1.5 billion Trust Fund to help provinces fight climate change to the $635 million tax credit for transit users, there is no sign of progress. In the case of the trust fund, there was no system put in place to ensure tracking of spending to climate goals. In the case of the transit pass, the amount of GHG reduced was described as “negligible” because the programme did not put any new mass transit on the roads. It gave a tax credit for monthly transit pass users. So, if you were already taking the local transit you got a reward. But it did nothing for GHG reductions. Instead of the advertised reductions of 220,000 tons, the government now estimates reductions 35,000. It is likely the most expensive, least effective GHG reduction programme launched anywhere in the world. Carbon emission reductions are a good value at $10-15/ton reduction. This one weighed in at over $6,000/ton. Way to go Mr. Harper.

The conclusion from all these reports: this government cannot be trusted with our economy or our environment.