Green's Support Surpasses NDP's in Canada for First Time Ever: GPC is 3rd National Party

National support for the Green Party has surged above the NDP's support for the first time ever in November 2007.

UPDATE: (Aug 2008) The Green Party's national support is now double that of the Bloc! See comment http://www.greenparty.ca/en/node/3149#comment-6872

Original Post:
The survey by the Strategic Counsel for The Globe and Mail/CTV shows the Green Party at 13% across Canada ahead of the NDP at 12%. The study was released on November 12.

Feb 2008 Update
Since this first poll in Nov 2007 many other polling companies have confirmed this trend. So it's no longer a one off occurence it's a persistent trend.

For instance in January a Harris Decima Poll put the Green Party ahead of the NDP for the first time ever in Ontario. That blog entitled Greens Surpass NDP in Ontario for 1st time ever is at http://www.greenparty.ca/en/node/3615

Then a poll commissioned by the Globe and Mail and CTV by Strategic Council released on February 20 put the Green Party as the third national party at 12% tied with the NDP at 12%. See post http://www.greenparty.ca/en/node/3944

Ipsos Reid poll in February put the Green Party at the highest level ever with respect to the NDP -- in an Ipsos poll. The two parties were within the margin of error. See http://www.greenparty.ca/en/node/3931

Of course in regional polls the Green Party has been ahead of the NDP -- in Alberta, Quebec, the 905 area in Toronto, at different times -- and there are a number of blogs dealing with this. For Alberta see http://www.greenparty.ca/en/node/3633#comment-3561

Back to the Original Blog Now
In the West the Greens are at 18% -- two per cent ahead of the NDP. In Quebec the Greens are at 10% ahead of the NDP at 7% and in Ontario the Greens and the NDP are tied at 12%. So the Green Party is ahead of the NDP in every region -- except Ontario where it's a tie.

So the GPC is, for the moment, the third national party -- ahead of the Bloc and ahead of the NDP.

The most important pages of Strategic Counsel's poll are available for download as an attachment below or you can download the full poll from http://www.thestrategiccounsel.com/our_news/polls.asp (Nov 12, 2007).

Greens Set to Elect First MPs
This positions the Green Party to elect the first Green caucus of MPs in the upcoming federal election. It's interesting to note that the NDP in 1993 with 6.88% of the vote elected 9 MPs. The Green Party is now at almost double that national threshold.

As the third largest party, I see no possible way that the TV network consortium can keep Elizabeth out of the televised leaders debates. A staggering 77% of Canadians believe Elizabeth should be included in the debates -- including a majority of supporters of the Conservatives, NDP, Liberals and Bloc.

It's important to note that in the Ontario provincial election -- the last six polls conducted by six different polling companies just prior to the October 10 election when added together and averaged out, pegged the Green Party of Ontario at 8% -- as noted by Greg Morrow of DemocraticSpace. And the GPO won exactly 8% -- meaning that the Green Party's vote has hardened over the 2006 election. There was no slippage due to strategic voting. Canadians are just getting deeply worried about climate change and realize the old parties have done nothing about it.

Get ready for some real shake ups in Canadian politics in the coming week and months. Canadians are even more disillusioned with all the old-line traditional parties than they have been in past. Recent developments in the past two weeks can shake the Conservatives to the core and create a major realignment.

Harper’s Hypocrisy
The poll shows incredible weakness for Harper and the Conservatives.

After campaigning tirelessly, ceaselessly, incessantly on accountability and wanting to rout out corruption, Harper refused steadfastly to call an inquiry into the controversy that has exploded after recent revelations that former Prime Minister Brian Mulroney’s did in fact receive $300,000 in three cash payments from German businessman Karlheinz Schreiber.

With poll numbers plummeting, Prime Minister Harper was finally forced to call for a "probe" into the affair.

For excellent backgrounders on the Mulroney-Schreiber Affair see http://www.cbc.ca/fifth/moneytruthandspin/characte... and http://www.cbc.ca/fifth/moneytruthandspin/money.html

Harper's stonewalling and excuses are taking a toll on his credibitlity. Was Harper's and the Conservative's commitment to accountability and exposing corruption only limited to the Liberal Party?

Did Mr Harper feel that Canadians' absolute distaste and revulsion at large envelopes stuffed with cash being surreptitiously passed under the table at clandestine meetings was strictly limited to Adscam?

Harper's stonewalling, delaying, excuses and threats of investigating past Liberal leaders' affairs as an excuse for not investigating this affair are glaringly hypocritical. One blogger has put it so well, I'll just quote him:

"Stephen Harper has long been a man who has inveighed against corruption in high places. When he became Canadian PM he arrived in Ottawa with the steely eyed look of the reformer. He was hell bent on cleaning up government and demanded accountability across the board. A new era had dawned in Canadian politics with Captain Clean at the helm.

Reformers can be challenging to be around. Harper proved to be just as controlling as you might expect a zealot to be, especially in his dealings with the press. This definitely wasn't a fun guy. But he was righteous. He gleamed with the sanctimonious sheen of the corruption buster.

He was also the Adscam slayer. Conservative pundits were shrill in their denunciation of shady practices in Quebec ad agencies where invisible people were collecting salaries - possibly even dead people and their long deceased mothers. They also denounced the undercover game best known as the 'brown envelope express', that allowed sketchy players in Quebec to pocket wads of cash just for playing the old Canadian unity game."

From Aidan Maconachy at http://aidanmaconachyblog.blogspot.com/2007/11/mul...

Here's another great blog on this: http://www.straightgoods.ca/ViewFeature7.cfm?REF=571

Important Distinction
Watch the language over the next few days and weeks. A "probe" is toothless PR exercise that's worthless. So is a "third party review." A "full-fledged inquiry" is no better and a Royal Commission won't do either.

The only reason everything surfaced about Adscam was Prime Minster Martin launched a judicial inquiry in which Justice Gomery had legal powers to subpoena witnesses and force them to testify -- or if a witness refused they could be sent to jail. Harper's calling for an third party probe into the Mulroney-Schreiber Affair has no such powers. Only a judicial inquiry will get to the bottom of the affair.

Shifting Polls
The Liberals and Conservatives are now both tied at 32% across Canada, the Greens at 13% and the NDP at 12%. It is the first time ever the Green Party has exceeded the NDP.

In many polls over the last year the support for the Green Party has exceeded the Bloc's but this is the first time it’s exceeded the NDP’s.

I have no doubt that the NDP will slip ahead of the GPC again nationally -- but it's time to celebrate!

The crack's in the NDP's status as the third national party are showing. The Green Party has won more votes in PEI in the provincial election than the NDP. The Green Party has won more votes than the NDP in all of Calgary in the last provincial election in Alberta. The Green Party has emerged as the fourth provincial party in Quebec -- after the Liberals, PQ, and ADQ -- the NDP doesn't even exist in provincially in Quebec. And this is the first time the Green Party has ever exceeded the NDP's support nationally in a major poll.

In the case of the Bloc, the GPC has been ahead of the Bloc's support for an extended period and come from different polling companies.

The comments below this blog have generated a lot of discussion -- so as a follow on I have blogged about general trends in polling and the Green party at http://greenparty.ca/en/node/3199 in a blog entitled: GPC's Relentless Rise: Ipsos-Reid Under-estimates Green Support by 2%: Inflates Conservative's Support 5%+

Back to the poll: In Ontario, which has 106 of the 308 federal seats, the Liberals are at 47% while the Conservatives have plummeted to 29%. The Green Party is at 12% tied with the NDP.

In the West the Green Party is at 18% -- two per cent ahead of the NDP while the Conservatives are at 43% (largely influenced by overwhelming support n Alberta); the Liberals 24%.

The poll of 1,000 Canadians was conducted Nov. 8-11 and is accurate to within 3.1 percentage points 19 times out of 20.

The poll is bad news for the NDP as its support has fallen as voters have moved to supporting the Greens and Liberals.

NDP Reaction to Greens Surpassing NDP Nationally
One NDP blogger reacting to this news has written:

. . . [this] "shouldn’t go unacknowledged on an NDPers blog. To that I offer this, I greatly doubt the Green’s could sustain these numbers in a national election.

Well this has simply pissed me off. So I'm throwing down the gauntlet and saying:

1) It’s important to note that in the 2007 Ontario provincial election — the last poll conducted by each of six major polling companies just prior to October 10 when added together and averaged pegged the Green Party of Ontario at 8% — as calculated by Greg Morrow of DemocraticSpace. And the GPO won exactly 8% — meaning that the Green Party’s predicted vote did not decline at all on Election Day.

Here's the news: The Green Party's vote has hardened. There was no slippage due to strategic voting. Canadians are just deeply worried about climate change and realize the old parties have done nothing about it.

2) In the London North Centre by-election, in November 2006 the NDP said that the Green Party wouldn’t be a serious player — but it was the NDP’s vote that collapsed from 24% to 14%. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_North_Centre

And similarly in Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound in the 2007 Ontario Provincial election, the NDP vote collapsed from 14% in a poll in the last two weeks of the campaign to 3.8% on Eday. For the actual election results see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bruce%E2%80%94Grey%E2...

If any party should be concerned about their vote collapsing it should be the NDP.

The Green Party has now surpassed the NDP in PEI — where it is the Green Party of PEI is the third provincial party.

In Calgary in the last Alberta provincial election the Greens won more votes in the city’s 22 ridings than the NDP. In national polls the GPC regularly has higher support in Alberta than the NDP.

In the 2006 federal election the Greens won roughly as many votes in Quebec as the NDP did in 2004. In Quebec the Green Party has polled higher than the NDP in numerous polls from different polling companies in different times (including this one).

And finally here today the Green Party is ahead of the NDP all across Canada.

Well, once Canadians realize that the NDP is struggling in provinces throughout the country, and that the Greens are a growing, exciting, vibrant, principle-based progressive party — look out — the NDP can and will collapse across the country.

With Buzz Hargrove arguing that union members should vote for the Liberals and the Greens rapid rise, the NDP should be worried.

Greens are Neither Right nor Left -- but out in Front
One of the things that some commentators don't understand is that the Green Party isn't right or left. One of my favourite blogs that I've written is entitled Greens: More Fiscally Responsible than Conservatives, more progressive than NDP you can see it at http://www.greenparty.ca/en/node/1150