NANAIMO – A new poll conducted by Oraclepoll Research shows Green Party candidate Paul Manly running a strong second in Nanaimo-Ladysmith with 29% of the vote. Manly is within the margin of error behind the Conservatives, who are in first place with 34%. The poll shows the Liberals third at 27% and the NDP trailing at 9%.
This is the second set of poll results that the Green Party has released to the public. Earlier polling, conducted between February 10th and 16th, placed Manly at 28%, signaling strong commitment among his supporters in spite of the dramatic shifts in the national political landscape since that time. The numbers also show the Conservatives have lost ground, NDP support has dropped significantly, and that the Liberal and NDP vote is extremely volatile.
“Paul has always been a strong community champion; he’s fought for affordable housing, improved health care, environmental protections and a future that works for everyone. Voters are telling us they trust Paul to deliver real progressive solutions, not just talk about them.” – Janice Roberts, Campaign Manager for Nanaimo-Ladysmith.
Economic concerns are the top priority for voters in Nanaimo-Ladysmith, with issues like U.S. trade relations, tariffs, affordable housing, cost of living, and healthcare consistently mentioned at the doors. Manly, who previously served as MP for the riding, brings expertise in international trade and foreign affairs, making him well-positioned to address the challenges of the current Canada-U.S. relationship.
« In Nanaimo-Ladysmith, the Green Party is the progressive choice to rally behind, » says Manly. « While some parties may show strength in national polling, our campaign is built on strong local connections and grassroots support that translates poll numbers into actual votes. »
Manly previously served in the House of Commons during debates on the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement and is ready to stand up for Canadian sovereignty and fight for fair trade agreements that protect workers, small businesses, and the environment, not corporate interests.
Survey details:
The Green Party of Canada commissioned Oraclepoll to conduct a live telephone survey with a randomized sample of N=600 voting-age residents in Nanaimo-Ladysmith, using both cellular and landline numbers. Interviews were conducted from March 28 to 31, 2025. The margin of error for the N=600 sample is +/- 4.0%.
Q2. If a federal election were held today, which Party and its candidate would you most likely vote for or be leaning towards?
Polling details can be requested here.
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For more information or to arrange an interview :
Fabrice Lachance Nové
Press secretary
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Rod Legget
Senior Advisor, Strategic Communications
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